English summary

Main findings from the Horizon Scan

An ageing population will have considerable impact on Nav. By 2035, four of five people in Norway will be 67 years old or older. The need for assistive technology will increase, both because more seniors live at home for longer, and because more people are likely to need adaptations to remain in the labour force. We expect to see an increasing labour shortage, especially in health and care services. We also expect to see a shortage of qualified workers in industry, construction and trades. In addition, the technological development and a greener economy will likely lead to changes in the types of skills that are in demand. We expect that those who have not completed upper secondary school will increasingly become over-represented among those who do not work. Such a development will require Nav and its partners to shift its resources to focus more on competence-building and lifelong learning.

The population growth will be strongest in centralised areas, whereas we expect to see a population decline among people of working age in more than half of Norway’s municipalities by 2035. This leads to considerable regional differences in the access to labour, and it will become more difficult to maintain good public services in all communities across the country. A continued development in favour of larger Nav offices with access to more expertise must be combined with high-quality digital services. Nav users expect predictable income protection, personalised and cohesive services and close follow-up with a long-term perspective. On the other hand, we also have to succeed in our efforts to simplify, automate and rationalise. We must strike a carefully considered balance between personal assistance and digitisation.

A new world order with considerable insecurity in international trade and geopolitics could lead to greater fluctuations and transitions in the labour market. Nav must be flexible and able to handle sudden changes and set-backs and must also be prepared for the risk of increased polarisation in society. Increased public spending on defence and public security could lead to changes in budgetary priorities. This comes in addition to the challenge of an ageing population leading to an increasing gap between public spending and income. Even so, Norway is well-placed to be able to maintain public welfare due to its high participation in the labour force and strong public economy.

An increased demand for labour will provide good opportunities to include more of the people who are currently not part of the labour force, many of whom have complex problems. Many refugees are not proficient in the Norwegian language or they lack other basic skills. Personalised education can help more people complete their education. We need to closely monitor the skills and expertise gap in the labour force, improve collaboration between Nav, health services, the education sector and local authorities, and we need to get employers more involved.

We expect that artificial intelligence (AI) will play a major role in digitisation. New opportunities include solutions that could ease the workload for employees, provide support in the decision-making process and in the assessment of follow-up needs, and improve recruitment services. AI could also contribute to new assistive technology and help promote universal design. In order to get the best value for money from new technology, we will likely need to discuss the legal framework, the need for more digitisation-friendly regulations, and how public IT development should be managed and funded. Technology and global instability also increases risk, including the risk of privacy breaches, disinformation, cyber-attacks and national insurance fraud. Nav therefore must have the expertise and capacity required to develop efficient and safe digital solutions.

Summary

Population growth slows – ageing and centralisation continue

Norway’s population is expected to increase, from 5.6 million in 2025, to 5.9 million in 2035. Immigration has played a major role in Norway’s population growth in recent decades. We expect growth to slow in the years leading up to 2035. The growth in population will primarily be seen among the elderly. The population over 67 years old will increase by 24 percent, making up four fifths of the total population growth, whereas the number of children and young people will decrease. By 2035, we expect to have more people over 67 than under 18 in Norway. The working-age population (ages 20–66) is expected to increase by 3 percent. An increasing retirement age could contribute to a higher increase in the working-age population. The government has decided to gradually increase age limits in our pension system, but the effect will be moderate before 2035.

The population growth will be strongest in centralised areas, whereas the districts will see depopulation and an ageing population. Small municipalities will be dependent on immigration for their population growth, and future immigration is associated with considerable uncertainty. This could affect both the population growth as such, as well as the labour market and welfare services. More than half of Norway’s municipalities could see a decrease in the working-age population (ages 20–66) by 2035. This Horizon Scan therefore presents a new demographics tool that will give Nav officers better insight into the local population.

Ageing will affect Nav, in that we will have more pensioners and increased demand for assistive technology, with estimated increases by 2035 of 28 and 26 percent, respectively. The processing of claims for and further management of old-age pensions is largely automatic. The number of international cases has increased, however, due to considerable immigration in recent decades. As communication with social security authorities in other countries is required, automation is limited in these types of cases, even if there is a potential for increased automation in the future. The introduction of the new early pension supplement, the so-called “slitertillegg” to old-age pensioners who start drawing pension at age 62–64 and who do not have employment income could also pose challenges for Nav’s capacity in the pension area, depending on our success in automating this new scheme.

Healthy life expectancy in the Norwegian population has gone up, but not as much as the general life expectancy. While the need for assistive technology occurs later in life, ageing will contribute to increased demand. Seniors remain living at home longer, which also increases demand for adaptation and assistive technology. Ageing will become especially challenging in depopulation areas, with limited access to age-adapted housing. Technological advancements could contribute to reduced costs for some assistive technology, as well as increased selection and more options. In addition, a stronger focus on workplace inclusion could lead to increased demand for assistive technology due to advice and counselling on workplace adaptations for people with disabilities. This means innovation and regulatory changes are needed to prevent capacity problems for Nav.

A population with more pensioners and fewer workers will lead to a bigger gap between expenses and incomes in the State Budget. In combination with the need for prioritisation between different public responsibilities, this will likely affect how much of the budget can be allocated to labour and welfare measures and schemes. At the same time, Nav is facing increased expectations for better occupational follow-up of multiple user groups. As a consequence of the need for more stringent prioritisation, we will likely see greater demand for a more efficient public sector and for documented effects of the services we provide. This could affect Nav’s organisation, favouring larger units and consolidation of our professional communities. In addition, this development could emphasise the need for regulatory simplification, as well as better and more efficient models for collaboration across sectors and with employers and local authorities. Simplification, however, requires a break from the current trend of increased complexity to attain various specific objectives. We also expect to see policy discussions on changes in benefits, such as stronger activity requirements, restrictions in benefit levels, more stringent qualification requirements and changes in benefit structure, as well as discussions of the scope of Nav’s service offering and active labour market policies.

Labour shortages improve chances of inclusion

Norway has high employment rates and low unemployment compared to most other countries. We do, however, have a considerable share of the population that is not part of the labour force or pursuing an education, especially for health-related reasons. Lower educated people are over-represented among the unemployed and others outside the labour force, and we expect this to become even more prevalent by 2035. The government has defined a goal to increase employment rates in the 20–64 age group, from 80.5 percent in 2023 to 82 percent in 2030 and 83 percent by 2035. Labour shortages will yield better opportunities for workplace inclusion in the years to come.

Even if we succeed in helping as many as possible of those currently outside the labour force to find employment, our ageing population will still cause labour shortages. This will become a challenge for our country as a whole, but the situation will be especially dire in less centralised areas. This includes recruitment to Nav and our local partners and may increase expectations for local collaborations to maintain high-quality services. Norway needs migrant workers, especially from the EU. Competition for these workers has increased and will continue to increase in the years to come. Employment immigration has gone down by approx. 40 percent since its peak in 2011, and it is expected to continue to decrease. The EU is implementing measures to attract skilled labour from countries outside the EU/EEA. This could challenge Norway’s ability to compete for these talents and could lead to Norway implementing similar measures.

Heading toward 2040, the demand for labour, especially in the health sector, will increase due to our ageing population. The number of people who pursue an education in healthcare is not high enough to meet this considerable demand. By 2040, we expect to see a shortage of 30,000 nurses and 24,000 health workers. We also expect to see a shortage of qualified workers in industry, construction and trades. This means we have to mobilise the part of our working-age population that is currently not part of the labour force, while simultaneously tackling changes in skill demand.

The labour market has an increased need for people with higher education and specialised expertise. Technological advancements, including artificial intelligence (AI), will change the labour market and the demand for labour. AI can automate and rationalise many tasks. As a result of this, the skills needed to perform many jobs will change. Some jobs will disappear completely, whereas others will be created. The effect of new technology on job creation is uncertain, but it will likely have a net positive effect. Artificial intelligence will lead to significant productivity growth, as well as a need of reorganisation, in some jobs. At the same time, research is divided on how big effect AI will have on productivity in the labour market overall in the next ten years. Estimates vary between 0.5 and 9 percent. The transition to a green economy will also change skill demands and drive innovation in electrification and alternative energy sources. However, the pace of this transition is more uncertain than before.

In determining the best approach to these new developments, we must take into account how increased uncertainty in international trade and geopolitics could affect the Norwegian economy and labour market. Production locations may change. Regionalisation of supply chains may lead to an increase in industry jobs in Europe, e.g. a larger European defence industry. We have to take into consideration that economic growth may be weaker and more unpredictable. The ageing population also slows economic growth, whereas public investments, including investments in defence, have the opposite effect. Nav must therefore be prepared to face a labour market that changes more quickly. We may see higher unemployment rates than we are used to, at least during certain periods or in certain regions, while some sectors may have labour shortages. In such situations, it will be essential to promote occupational and geographic mobility.

It will become increasingly important to acquire new skills and new knowledge throughout one’s career, through formal further and continuing education or more informal skills development. With increasing demands, there is a risk of more people failing to meet these demands, thus losing their connection to the labour market or being unable to enter it in the first place. Some may need alternative educational pathways. This imposes demands on the education system, as well as on employees and employers. But Nav also plays a key role, by contributing to provide the skills needed to support the transition from unemployment to employment.

Improved public health, but uncertainty over living conditions and health-related benefits

The burden of disease in the Norwegian population showed a marked decrease in the years 2000–2019, but increased again during the Covid pandemic. The pandemic continues to impact public health, by an increased prevalence of infectious diseases and sequelae from Covid-19. We expect to see a small increase in the burden of disease by 2035 due to the ageing population. Projections are uncertain. These uncertainties are tied, among other things, to the risk of new pandemics and increased antibiotic resistance, as well as potential refugee crises and negative consequences of climate and environmental changes.

The prevalence of mental health disorders in the population has been relatively stable for some time, and the projections do not predict any significant change by 2035. However, the share of people with self-reported mental health problems has increased among the young population, especially among young women. It is possible that this trend will continue, as it may be attributable to increased openness around mental health and an increased tendency to use health problems to explain social and/or complex issues.

When we look at the burden of disease by category, we saw the biggest percentage-wise decrease from 2000 to 2021 for cardiovascular diseases, 51 percent. The largest decreases after that were injuries and cancer, at 25 and 12 percent, respectively. For mental health disorders there was an increase of 11 percent, and musculoskeletal diseases increased 7 percent. The majority of the increase in mental health disorders came during the pandemic, with an increase of 7 percent from 2019 to 2021.

There is no clear link between developments in the burden of disease and recipients of health-related benefits. Norway has a higher percentage of recipients of health-related benefits than other European countries. Sickness absence rates are especially high. The development in health-related benefits can be split into two periods – pre-pandemic and post-pandemic. In the period 2010–2019, we saw a significant decrease in the percentage of the population aged 18–66 who received health-related benefits. In 2019, this percentage was the lowest it had been since 2000, at 16.6 percent. During the pandemic, the trend flipped, and the percentage in 2023, at 18.3, sits around the peak years for the entire 2000–2023 period. There are concerns about the increased percentage of young people receiving disability benefit. Mental health disorders and problems are a major reason for being granted health-related benefits from Nav, especially among young people.

Access to employment and income is important for the population’s quality of life. For people with certain disorders and health problems, working could be beneficial. People with higher education and higher income live longer and are healthier. People with immigrant background are a heterogeneous group, and the composition of this group changes over time. The immigrant population therefore has varying health problems, with a higher prevalence of mental health problems among refugees.

Both local authorities and centralised services are important in health development and integration into the labour market and society in general. Nav plays a central role in promoting public health through its social services and income protection, and through access to employment especially. High demand for labour facilitates labour market inclusion. At the same time, uncertainty is higher than it has been for many decades, with increased risk of abrupt changes in the labour market and society in general, unemployment and exclusion.

Flexibility and individual adaptation are important factors in efficient follow-up. Nav must continue working with outside providers on effective measures and follow-up activities. Individual Placement and Support (IPS) has improved labour market inclusion for people with mental health and addiction disorders. A dedicated measure, “HelseIArbeid”, is another promising collaboration between Nav and the health sector to include work as part of treatment.

It is difficult to predict how the need for health-related benefits will develop toward 2035. While the burden of disease in the population is expected to increase overall, we expect to see a decrease in the working-age population. On its own, this would suggest a reduction in the inflow to health-related benefits. However, the burden of disease is primarily expected to improve for cardiovascular diseases and cancer, which do not account for a large share of health-related benefits, whereas we expect minimal changes in musculoskeletal and mental health disorders, which are the two largest diagnosis groups in this context.

Immigrants are less likely to receive health-related benefits than those born in Norway. This could likely be attributed to several different factors. The immigrant population is, on average, younger than the Norwegian-born population, and migrant workers in particular have a better than average health. In addition, institutional factors play a role, as the right to health-related benefits and other national insurance benefits is largely contingent upon employment and residence periods. An increase in refugees, especially from Ukraine, has therefore increased the number of recipients of social assistance and put pressure on Nav offices. Low employment rates among immigrants from Africa and Asia contribute to an increase in households with persistent low incomes.

Norwegian households have seen an increase in real income since the mid-1990s, but price inflation and higher interest rates since 2022 has put more households in a difficult financial situation. While the number of recipients of social assistance has increased overall, the percentage of Norwegian-born recipients of social assistance decreased up to 2023. In 2024 there was a small increase. Through this period, Nav has also seen an increase in the number of people who ask for help finding temporary accommodation. There has been a significant increase in the percentage of children who live in persistent low-income households (household income below EU60 for three consecutive years), and a lot of this increase can be attributed to immigration from Africa and Asia. Among immigrants from Africa and Asia, the employment rate is 62 and 65 percent, respectively, compared to 80 percent among Norwegian-born. The trend of increased child poverty seems to have slowed and perhaps reversed recently, including as a result of multiple increases in child benefit and removing child benefit from the calculation basis for social assistance. These policy changes have contributed to higher incomes for families who receive social assistance. This gives more children a better start in life, but it does not change the fact that the most important factor in improving their quality of life would be for their caregivers to find stable and gainful employment.

Unemployment rates, economic growth and developments in real income, debt-to-income ratios and interest rates, and the influx of refugees are the main factors that will affect economic constraints for families and the need for social assistance toward 2035. The most likely scenario is that unemployment rates remain low, employment rates remain high, and real income growth remains moderate. Refugees and other vulnerable groups will continue to need a certain degree of social assistance, but the main prediction is that the number of social assistance recipients will remain relatively low or decrease if the influx of new refugees continues to decrease. In addition, the ageing population will, on its own, reduce the need for social assistance, as pensioners rarely need social assistance.

If we see increased unemployment rates and the interest rates remain high, this will not immediately increase the demand for social assistance, but it will mean financial advice and counselling become more important, something Nav has already seen in recent years. If, on the other hand, we see a persistent situation with high unemployment, low real income growth and high interest rates, it could increase demand for supplementary financial assistance. The biggest individual factor with a potential to increase demand for social assistance is whether we will see a bigger influx of refugees again and how successful we are in integrating those come into our labour market.

Labour shortages and more people with higher education could lead to more people finding stable and gainful employment. On the other hand, an ageing workforce could lead to low productivity growth, and the economic forecast is more uncertain now than it has been for a long time. There is also considerable uncertainty around immigration and the influx of refugees who lack the skills required in the Norwegian labour market. Nav will need to be prepared to face these uncertainties knowing they could lead to more people being in need of follow-up and benefits.

Finding the right balance between digitisation and in-person communication

Nav’s main user groups are private individuals and employers. Users have a clear expectation of being met with respect and trust. Even with the increased digitisation we expect to see by 2035, in-person communication and easy access to Nav remain the clear expectation. This is especially true in the early stages of processing and follow-up.

Users want simple, more cohesive and personalised services, both within Nav and across all public services. This includes both digital and in-person communication with Nav. We believe Nav will face a gap in expectations in the years to come, where we, on the one hand, must meet society’s expectation of automation and efficient resource utilisation, and, on the other, the users’ expectations of personalised services and close, long-term follow-up. The challenge is finding the right balance between digital services and person-to-person communication.

Increased use of artificial intelligence (AI) and digitisation offers new opportunities and can help meet some of the expectations, but it could also put up barriers. Nav must help those who struggle to use digital services. Language technology is both an opportunity and a barrier. A transition to digital services requires a higher proficiency in written language. At the same time, new language technology could help reduce such barriers. This means Nav must focus on using clear language as well as on how technology can be used to improve communication with users who have special needs.

There is an expectation for Nav to see the complexities of each user’s individual situation and tailor its services to each user’s needs. Nav already promotes cross-sectoral collaboration. This should be continued and strengthened to achieve better collaboration between Nav, health services and the education sector. Data sharing is highlighted as a key factor in ensuring more cohesive services across the public sector. Automation can help meet some expectations for better and more efficient processing of benefit applications, and Nav should strive to make rules and regulations more digitisation-friendly to achieve progress in this area.

Employers are focused on labour shortages, especially in the districts, as well as increased demand for workplace adaptation. There is an expectation for Nav to maintain a long-term perspective in its follow-up of users to ensure more people have the skills and qualifications demanded by the labour market. Nav needs to take proactive action to promote inclusion and adaptation and should have knowledge about other parts of the public sector and the needs of local labour markets. Increased predictability and a long-term perspective in follow-up and measures are also needed. Nav should focus on offering relevant courses and encouraging users to pursue educations that provide them with formal qualifications, such as trade certification. Employers expect Nav to take an active role in preventing and following up on sickness absences. For many enterprises, having an assigned contact within Nav is considered important and makes communication with Nav easier.

Even with digitisation, in-person communication will still be necessary. It is important for Nav’s employees to have the skills and tools required to assist users with different needs. Nav’s employees must also be knowledgeable about the labour market. For some people, the goal will be to become independent of Nav’s services as soon as possible, whereas others will need assistance long-term. Technology can meet needs that do not require person-to-person contact or where human resources currently are not enough. The degree to which we are able to meet the population’s expectations will determine how its trust in Nav develops. It will be important to find a good balance between increased use of AI and digitisation to streamline and improve services and the need users have to interact with Nav’s employees. We still have some way to go in terms of defining the requirements for user perspectives in digitisation process, as well as in terms of identifying which tasks are suited for digitisation and which are not.

Most of Nav’s employees work closely with various groups of users or employers. Their understanding what will become key societal trends in the years to come will be useful in the development of strategies and plans. In a survey conducted in the preparation of this Horizon Scan, employees especially emphasise the following trends:

1. Ageing population: Increased demand for health and welfare services.

2. Digitisation: Changes in work processes and interaction and higher expectations for service quality.

3. Artificial intelligence (AI): Considerable uncertainty associated with developments and consequences.

4. Mental health: Increasing percentage of people with mental health problems, especially among young people.

5. Exclusion among young people: Comprehensive effort is needed to prevent long-term negative consequences.

6. Influx of refugees: Increased need for personalised services.

7. International conflicts: Highly uncertain what the consequences to society and Nav will be.

Naturally, these understandings vary across Nav’s different units, as their responsibilities and user groups also vary. Local Nav offices emphasise mental health and exclusion among young people as key issues that need to be addressed. Nav Assistive Technology and Adaptations point to the ageing population as the most important trend to address. It is difficult to balance the need for assistive technology in this group against other target groups, such as children and young people, and to provide tools and adaptation for increased participation in the workforce and education. Those at the county/regional level often emphasise the problems, opportunities and uncertainties associated with artificial intelligence. Compared to a previous survey from 2022, more employees now point to the ageing population, the influx of refugees, international conflicts and reduced trust in the public sector as key issues. At the same time, fewer people point to the green transition/climate change, the rate of restructuring in the labour market and skills gaps among job seekers as key societal trends that may affect Nav.

Artificial intelligence (AI) will play a key role in Nav’s future

Technology and society have a mutual influence on each other. Increased use of digital technology and artificial intelligence creates new opportunities for a more efficient public sector and the development of better services in line with user expectations. To meet expectations of more cohesive public services, the public sector must become better at utilising its own data and the data of others to revitalise and improve services. This requires a closer and more systematic collaboration between different public authorities.

We expect artificial intelligence (AI) to play a central role in digitisation in the next decade, including the use of generative AI models capable of handling text, images, audio and video. For Nav, we expect AI to become increasingly integrated into support tools that can ease the workload for Nav’s employees, and for this technology to provide decision support in processing and the assessment of follow-up needs. AI can also help promote universal design and contribute to the development of new assistive technology. Various technologies, such as situational audio description and live transcription, can assist users with visual and auditory impairment. Digital interpretation services can support communication in minority languages. AI can also be used to improve job application processes and recruitment. All exploration, development and use of AI in Nav must be handled responsibly and in line with data protection and security requirements to ensure high-quality services for all.

Despite significant advancements and investments in AI and other digitisation globally, there is a risk that productivity goals cannot be met. For Nav, uncertainties in terms of scope of action, statutory restrictions, coordination, governance and cross-sectoral funding, as well as access to necessary expertise, are factors that may impede progress in service development. We will likely see discussions in the years to come on how public IT development should be governed and funded to ensure the best value for money, and how we can achieve a more digitisation-friendly regulatory framework.

Global uncertainty – changed priorities and stronger focus on public security

In the years to come, Norway must adapt to changed and uncertain international trends. Europe is facing many security challenges. This affects Norway’s security and defence policies, and our country is also seeing an influx of refugees. Increased protectionism and trade restrictions impacts the global free trade system Norway is reliant on. The UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is under pressure. The United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and wants to withdraw from the WHO, which weakens global cooperation on climate goals and health protection.

The war in Ukraine has had significant consequences for Norway, both in terms of our security policy specifically, and in terms of receiving and settling individuals who have been displaced by this war. There is considerable uncertainty associated with how many refugees and other displaced people will continue to come and with how many will remain here over time, both from Ukraine and other war zones. A significant shift toward defence and public security means that defence spending and other public support, e.g. to Ukraine, will make up a bigger part of the State Budget. Nav must be prepared for budgetary priorities changing and for preparedness plans and measures to become more of a focus. Nav must take this into account in its plans and strategies.

Norwegian policies are impacted both directly and indirectly, through the EEA Agreement. The EU’s political agenda for 2024–2029 emphasises productivity, sustainable competition and tackling labour shortages and skills gaps. Europe must close the innovation gap to the United States and China, especially in the area of advanced technology, prepare a cohesive plan for decarbonisation and competition, and strengthen security while simultaneously becoming less reliant on countries that may become adversaries.

While there has been a trend favouring free trade for decades, tariffs and other trade restrictions will again affect growth in the global economy and trade between countries. There is considerable uncertainty associated with how things will develop going forward. The most positive outcome entails a solution of negotiations and de-escalation. The most concerning scenario entails global economic instability and recession, and significantly increased unemployment in Norway as well as the rest of the world. Nav monitors the situation closely and is ready to assist both employers and employees deal with the consequences of a potentially large trade conflict.

New vulnerabilities also emerge as new technology develops. Generative AI lowers the threshold for disinformation, national insurance fraud, work-related crimes and cyber-attacks, and the global uncertainty also has considerable impact in this area. Furthermore, the selection of digital tools and services may include geopolitical and security considerations. It will be essential for Nav to have the expertise and capacity required to deal with such vulnerabilities.

Compared with most other countries, Norway enjoys a high level of trust, both within the population and between the population and public authorities. However, we see that polarisation is increasing and values in the population are changing in Norway as well. Many people have less faith in the government and the public sector being able to provide them with the support they need. There is a strong expectation that public resources can be utilised more efficiently. Social media is not well suited for a broad public discourse. One cannot take for granted that support of collective solutions, such as universal welfare schemes, remains high going forward. It will therefore be important to achieve societal objectives, such as increasing employment rates, prevent workforce dropout, strengthen trust in national insurance and prevent areas of pervasive exclusion.

Nav’s competence needs are affected by societal change

Nav’s expertise must evolve to meet restructuring and developing competence requirements in the labour market, changed expectations from users, digitisation and increased collaboration with other services. In its strategy, Nav’s ambition is to become a “learning organisation that facilitates success”. A learning organisation incorporates changes in its environment and develops by creating, acquiring, sharing and transferring knowledge. Among other things, this entails that competence-building and learning are based on involvement and participation from the employees and that the organisation facilitates for developmental processes to take place.

Restructuring in the labour market will require Nav to have up-to-date analytical knowledge and an understanding of what these changes mean for the labour market and for service development, on both a national and a local level. Continuous and practice-oriented competence-building will be required to identify, reflect on and apply employee knowledge and experience. To access knowledge that may strengthen and renew service development, a culture where research and experiences are shared must be established. Awareness and knowledge of innovative and flexible service development, including how competence is an integral part of service development, are essential if we are to meet the need for rapid restructuring. Both managers and employees must take responsibility for competence-building and learning opportunities.

Changes in user expectations will require better knowledge of user needs. With the growth of digitisation and AI, user needs among those who need support from Nav will appear to be more complex. Knowledge of what promotes inclusion of vulnerable groups, such as young people, immigrants and others who are experiencing, or are at risk of, long-term exclusion will be especially important. We also need a good overview of the expertise Nav’s employees already possess in order to meet future challenges and needs for change. Counselling skills can be developed through both formal education and informal arenas of self-reflection and skill-building. Relevant approaches include communication and relational work, as well as training in how research-based knowledge can be applied in one’s own practices. To meet user expectations of uniform and cohesive services, Nav must develop an understanding of how counselling, inclusion, labour markets and public administration interact and relate to each other. With potential future cuts in various welfare schemes, Nav’s employees will also need knowledge of and training in handling difficult situations and dilemmas when they are reviewing access to services.

Cohesive services across sectors and administrative levels will require increased knowledge of partners in other sectors, which services can be offered to users, what the effects of such services are, and how new services can be developed in collaboration with others. Sharing knowledge and learning from experience across sectors will be central in contributing to uniform services and meeting future user needs. This will require structured approaches between different groups, users and employers, such as through networks, collaborations and co-creation projects. At the same time, this means Nav must build expertise on what is required for cross-sectoral collaborations to succeed, and how such collaborations can be evaluated and developed.

Digitisation and AI will affect all of Nav’s services and employees, and will require legal, technological and analytical knowledge and knowledge of how technology is used. Nav’s employees must build expertise on the use of digital technology and how to apply this technology in their relationship with the users. Increasing use of artificial intelligence and decision support give rise to a need for increased knowledge of how algorithms can be applied in appropriate ways to build knowledge and further develop our practices. Furthermore, Nav must develop an understanding of how digitisation and AI affect the labour market.

What if? Where are we in 2035?

The Horizon Scan addresses a number of developmental factors that will affect each other, and the combination of how successful Nav is in different areas will determine whether or not we achieve the goals we have set. That is why we have developed some scenarios focusing on how collaboration, technology and adaptation will influence workforce participation, exclusion and quality of life in society by 2035 (see Chapter 3). In chapters 6.9 and 9.11, we have also created scenarios for how global uncertainty could affect the labour market and the need for social services.

If we are successful in achieving a better collaboration between Nav, the health sector, the education sector and local authorities, we will be able to better support our users. This would mean more people participating in the workforce, more people achieving a good quality of life, and fewer children and youths living in poverty. If, on the other hand, we do not achieve our goal of strengthening cross-sectoral collaboration, improving integration and increasing mobility between depopulation areas and high-pressure areas, many will find themselves excluded from the workforce. Many will feel excluded from society and more people will experience a lower quality of life, especially in certain areas. This could lead to increased polarisation and distrust in the public system.

How Nav is able to meet user needs and expectations for services is essential for how Nav will be perceived in 2035. One goal is to develop better, fully digital public services that most users prefer, with a clear prioritisation between standard solutions and personal assistance. If Nav is successful in this endeavour, and most users prefer these services, this would free up resources to help those who need it with close follow-up and long-term plans for inclusion. At the same time, high expectations for public services, including preferences for personalisation in combination with demands for rationalisation, could lead to the demand for personal assistance becoming higher than expected. This could pose a challenge for Nav’s capacity and ultimately lead to increased wait-times and exclusion, an emergence of private welfare offerings and increasing inequality.

Technological developments have the potential for making services more efficient and of higher quality. If this is given priority, the public sector can take a leading role in developing and implementing digital solutions. As a result, Nav could develop and use AI-assisted counselling and automated case processing, while data sharing across sectors could yield secure, cohesive services personalised to the user’s individual needs. If, however, the technological lag in the public sector continues, 2035 could be marked by inefficiency of public services, long wait-times and low user satisfaction.

These scenarios show that while the challenges are many, opportunities also abound. By providing accurate services, competent consultation on labour market needs and good feedback on political decision-making processes, Nav can contribute to a positive outcome. Nav must therefore monitor how society develops and maintain a high analytical capacity that can be leveraged in the administration’s strategy work, as feedback in decision-making processes, and scaling the need for different services and benefits. This is especially important in unsettled times, when the framework conditions could change quickly and significantly. The purpose of this Horizon Scan is to contribute to this work.